Lots of individual mistakes here, that together serve to severely overstate the case made:
Failure to defeat Houthi Rebels: The US Navy’s struggles against the Houthis’ low-cost drone arsenal demonstrate how even non-state actors can challenge NATO air defense. NATO forces found themselves hard-pressed to counter relatively primitive drone attacks.
The Houthis were unable to touch US naval power. What the US couldn’t do is defend ships in a very narrow stretch of water from drone, missile, and speedboat attacks. This is a very specific situation, and it’s like saying there’s an end to US ground power because they couldn’t decisively defeat the Taliban. Asymmetric warfare works, more news at 10.
Also note the drones they were using were far from cheap, often costing hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Economic logic of drone warfare: In Ukraine, drones account for over 70% of combat kills—a proportion likely to increase. The economics are devastating: $1,000 FPV drones routinely destroy $7 million Abrams tanks. Modern tanks are dangerously outdated and the entire armored warfare needs to be redesigned from the ground up to face the realities of modern drone warfare.
You do see the videos where the tank gets blown up by the (closer to $5000) drone, you don’t see the vast majority of videos where it does nothing. Meanwhile how many people were killed by the Abrams tank, and how useful was the Abrams tank when used correctly to break through enemy lines and regain movement—something drones are not really capable of.
Obsolescence of NATO doctrine: NATO’s military doctrine remains rooted in pre-drone warfare assumptions, creating an embarrassing disconnect where peacetime generals lecture battle-hardened Ukrainian officers who possess actual combat experience against a lethal, drone-equipped adversary.
Given that Nato’s doctrine assumes air superiority, which drones barely impact at all, I don’t see how you could possibly draw such a conclusion from the war in Ukraine, where both sides decisively lack air superiority.
Navy should transition from few expensive carriers to distributed drone-launching platforms—hundreds of cheap drone carriers, underwater drone deployments, and autonomous loyal wingmen for the naval air-force.
The seas are huge, and cheap drones are short range and slow. Enemy ships are difficult to find in a vast empty sea. Ships are extremely difficult to destroy or cripple. Communications are almost certainly jammed. For drones to be useful they need to be:
fast
long range
carry a large payload
autonomous
We call such drones “cruise missiles” and they are extensively deployed in all NATO Navies. If you know a way to make them cheaper, then the DoD will almost certainly be very interested.
autonomous loyal wingmen for the naval air-force.
Current drone warfare is all about low cost, slow, short range, non-autonomous technology. Autonomous wingmen would by high cost, fast, long range, autonomous. I don’t see how you could possibly draw conclusions about them from current events.
The Transparent Battlefield: Assume constant observation. Every movement is tracked, every concentration targeted within minutes. Forces must operate dispersed, communicating through secure mesh networks, moving constantly. Resources, command, logistics—everything dispersed, redundant, modular.
This is basically current NATO doctrine, and has been for years.
Technology parity: China has successfully replicated fifth-generation fighter capabilities (notably copying JSF technology through espionage) and is now mass-producing these aircraft at scale.
This is true, but note that China is investing heavily into this stuff (and aircraft carriers), not autonomous drone swarms.
are increasingly vulnerable to drone swarms and hypersonic missiles
I have seen zero evidence of this. Indeed hypersonic missiles are similarly vulnerable to air defences as non hypersonic ones, and come with a whole host of problems of their own.
Lots of individual mistakes here, that together serve to severely overstate the case made:
The Houthis were unable to touch US naval power. What the US couldn’t do is defend ships in a very narrow stretch of water from drone, missile, and speedboat attacks. This is a very specific situation, and it’s like saying there’s an end to US ground power because they couldn’t decisively defeat the Taliban. Asymmetric warfare works, more news at 10.
Also note the drones they were using were far from cheap, often costing hundreds of thousands of dollars.
You do see the videos where the tank gets blown up by the (closer to $5000) drone, you don’t see the vast majority of videos where it does nothing. Meanwhile how many people were killed by the Abrams tank, and how useful was the Abrams tank when used correctly to break through enemy lines and regain movement—something drones are not really capable of.
Given that Nato’s doctrine assumes air superiority, which drones barely impact at all, I don’t see how you could possibly draw such a conclusion from the war in Ukraine, where both sides decisively lack air superiority.
The seas are huge, and cheap drones are short range and slow. Enemy ships are difficult to find in a vast empty sea. Ships are extremely difficult to destroy or cripple. Communications are almost certainly jammed. For drones to be useful they need to be:
fast
long range
carry a large payload
autonomous
We call such drones “cruise missiles” and they are extensively deployed in all NATO Navies. If you know a way to make them cheaper, then the DoD will almost certainly be very interested.
Current drone warfare is all about low cost, slow, short range, non-autonomous technology. Autonomous wingmen would by high cost, fast, long range, autonomous. I don’t see how you could possibly draw conclusions about them from current events.
This is basically current NATO doctrine, and has been for years.
This is true, but note that China is investing heavily into this stuff (and aircraft carriers), not autonomous drone swarms.
I have seen zero evidence of this. Indeed hypersonic missiles are similarly vulnerable to air defences as non hypersonic ones, and come with a whole host of problems of their own.