[Caveat lector: I know roughly nothing about policy!]
For AI people new to international affairs, I’ve generally recommend skimming these well-respected texts that are pretty well-known to have directly inspired many of the people making foreign policy decisions:
Chapters 1 and 2 of Mearsheimer’s Tragedy of Great Power Politics (2010). The model (offensive realism) is not enough by itself, but it helps to start with a flawed model because the space is full of them, this model has been predictive, it’s popular among policymakers in DC, and gives a great perspective on how impoverished foreign policy culture is because nobody ever reads stuff like the Sequences.
Chapters 1 and 4 of Nye’s Soft Power (2004)(skim ch. 1 extra fast and ch. 4 slower). Basically a modern history of propaganda and influence operations, except cutting off at 2004. Describes how the world is more complicated than Tragedy of Great Power Politics describes.
Chapters 1 and 2 of Schelling’s Arms and Influence (1966). Yes, it’s that Schelling, this was when he started influencing the world’s thinking about how decision theory drives nuclear standoffs, and diplomacy in general, in the wake of the Cuban Missile Crisis. You can be extremely confident that this was a big part of the cultural foundation of foreign policy establishments around the world, plus for a MIRI employee it should be an incredibly light read applying decision theory to international politics and nuclear war.
I’m going to read some more stuff soon and possibly overhaul these standard recommendations.
Akash also recommended Devil’s Chessboard to understand intelligence agencies, and Master of the Senate and Act of Congress to understand Congress. I haven’t gotten around to reading them yet, and I can’t tell how successful his org has been in Congress itself (which is the main measurement of success tendency), but the Final Takes section of his post on Congress is fantastic and makes me confident enough to try them out.
For AI people new to international affairs, I’ve generally recommend skimming these well-respected texts that are pretty well-known to have directly inspired many of the people making foreign policy decisions:
Chapters 1 and 2 of Mearsheimer’s Tragedy of Great Power Politics (2010). The model (offensive realism) is not enough by itself, but it helps to start with a flawed model because the space is full of them, this model has been predictive, it’s popular among policymakers in DC, and gives a great perspective on how impoverished foreign policy culture is because nobody ever reads stuff like the Sequences.
Chapters 1 and 4 of Nye’s Soft Power (2004)(skim ch. 1 extra fast and ch. 4 slower). Basically a modern history of propaganda and influence operations, except cutting off at 2004. Describes how the world is more complicated than Tragedy of Great Power Politics describes.
Chapters 1 and 2 of Schelling’s Arms and Influence (1966). Yes, it’s that Schelling, this was when he started influencing the world’s thinking about how decision theory drives nuclear standoffs, and diplomacy in general, in the wake of the Cuban Missile Crisis. You can be extremely confident that this was a big part of the cultural foundation of foreign policy establishments around the world, plus for a MIRI employee it should be an incredibly light read applying decision theory to international politics and nuclear war.
I’m going to read some more stuff soon and possibly overhaul these standard recommendations.
Akash also recommended Devil’s Chessboard to understand intelligence agencies, and Master of the Senate and Act of Congress to understand Congress. I haven’t gotten around to reading them yet, and I can’t tell how successful his org has been in Congress itself (which is the main measurement of success tendency), but the Final Takes section of his post on Congress is fantastic and makes me confident enough to try them out.