It seems to me that the rational action is to now update toward believing that this short timelines hypothesis is true and 3-7 years from 2022 is 2025-2029 which is substantially earlier than 2047.
I don’t really agree, although it might come down to what you mean. When some people talk about their AGI timelines they often mean something much weaker than what I’m imagining, which can lead to significant confusion.
If your bar for AGI was “score very highly on college exams” then my median “AGI timelines” dropped from something like 2030 to 2025 over the last 2 years. Whereas if your bar was more like “radically transform the human condition”, I went from ~2070 to 2047.
I just see a lot of ways that we could have very impressive software programs and yet it still takes a lot of time to fundamentally transform the human condition, for example because of regulation, or because we experience setbacks due to war. My fundamental model hasn’t changed here, although I became substantially more impressed with current tech than I used to be.
(Actually, I think there’s a good chance that there will be no major delays at all and the human condition will be radically transformed some time in the 2030s. But because of the long list of possible delays, my overall distribution is skewed right. This means that even though my median is 2047, my mode is like 2034.)
I don’t really agree, although it might come down to what you mean. When some people talk about their AGI timelines they often mean something much weaker than what I’m imagining, which can lead to significant confusion.
If your bar for AGI was “score very highly on college exams” then my median “AGI timelines” dropped from something like 2030 to 2025 over the last 2 years. Whereas if your bar was more like “radically transform the human condition”, I went from ~2070 to 2047.
I just see a lot of ways that we could have very impressive software programs and yet it still takes a lot of time to fundamentally transform the human condition, for example because of regulation, or because we experience setbacks due to war. My fundamental model hasn’t changed here, although I became substantially more impressed with current tech than I used to be.
(Actually, I think there’s a good chance that there will be no major delays at all and the human condition will be radically transformed some time in the 2030s. But because of the long list of possible delays, my overall distribution is skewed right. This means that even though my median is 2047, my mode is like 2034.)