One more personal update, which I hope will be final until the bet resolves:
I made quite a few mistakes while writing this bet. For example, I carelessly used 2022 dollars while crafting the inflation adjustment component of the second condition. These sorts of things made me update in the direction of thinking that making a good timelines bet is really, really hard.
And I’m a bit worried that people will use this bet to say that I was deeply wrong, and my credibility will blow up if I lose. Maybe I am deeply wrong, and maybe it’s right that my credibility should blow up. But for the record, I never had a very high credence on winning—just enough so that the bet seemed worth it.
I don’t think this will affect your credibility too much. You made a bet, which is virtuous. And you will note how few people were interested in taking it at the time.
One more personal update, which I hope will be final until the bet resolves:
I made quite a few mistakes while writing this bet. For example, I carelessly used 2022 dollars while crafting the inflation adjustment component of the second condition. These sorts of things made me update in the direction of thinking that making a good timelines bet is really, really hard.
And I’m a bit worried that people will use this bet to say that I was deeply wrong, and my credibility will blow up if I lose. Maybe I am deeply wrong, and maybe it’s right that my credibility should blow up. But for the record, I never had a very high credence on winning—just enough so that the bet seemed worth it.
I don’t think this will affect your credibility too much. You made a bet, which is virtuous. And you will note how few people were interested in taking it at the time.