If the aim is for non-takeup of this bet to provide evidence against short timelines, I think you’d need to change the odds significantly: conditional on short timelines, future money is worth very little. Better to have an extra $1000 in a world where it’s still useful than in one where it may already be too late.
If the aim is for non-takeup of this bet to provide evidence against short timelines, I think you’d need to change the odds significantly: conditional on short timelines, future money is worth very little. Better to have an extra $1000 in a world where it’s still useful than in one where it may already be too late.