This seems to me to be failing to account for the fact that we are not in fact totally blindfolded and know that we live in what appears to be a time prior to simulation. Your alternative scenario that contradicts (iii) seems to be making a bet on information that seems directly contradictory to what we know at the current time (that is, there are no simulations we know about yet). The problem isn’t purely one of numbers, but one of where we perceive ourselves to be living now.
I do happen to agree that indifference is probably the most useful response to the simulation argument, though it sounds like probably for different reasons.
We are totally blindfolded. He specified that they would be “ancestor simulations” thus in all those simulations they would appear to be in a time prior to simulation.
This seems to me to be failing to account for the fact that we are not in fact totally blindfolded and know that we live in what appears to be a time prior to simulation. Your alternative scenario that contradicts (iii) seems to be making a bet on information that seems directly contradictory to what we know at the current time (that is, there are no simulations we know about yet). The problem isn’t purely one of numbers, but one of where we perceive ourselves to be living now.
I do happen to agree that indifference is probably the most useful response to the simulation argument, though it sounds like probably for different reasons.
We are totally blindfolded. He specified that they would be “ancestor simulations” thus in all those simulations they would appear to be in a time prior to simulation.