An easy way to capture most of the benefits of overconfidence without actually contorting beliefs too much is to separate beliefs about the world from beliefs about the best decision given those beliefs about the world.
I can have very high confidence that something is the right course of action because it has the highest expected benefit even if my confidence about the state of the world is low.
An easy way to capture most of the benefits of overconfidence without actually contorting beliefs too much is to separate beliefs about the world from beliefs about the best decision given those beliefs about the world.
I can have very high confidence that something is the right course of action because it has the highest expected benefit even if my confidence about the state of the world is low.