In a comment to my map of biases in x-risks research I got suggestion to add collective biases, so I tried to make their preliminary list and would welcome any suggestions:
“Some biases result from collective behaviour of group of peoples, so that each person seems to be rational but the result is irrational or suboptimal.
Well-known examples are tragedy of the commons, prisoners dilemma and other non optimal Nash equilibriums.
Different form of natural selection may result in such group behaviour, for example psychopaths may easily reach higher status.
It all affects discovery and management of x-risks. Here I will try to list some of such biases in two most important fields: science and management of x-risks.
Collective biases in the field of global risks research
Publication bias
Different schools of thought
It is impossible to read everything – important points are not read
Fraud
Fight for priority
No objective measure of truth in field of x-risks
Betting on small probabilities is impossible
Different languages
Not everything is published
Paywalls
Commercialization
Arrogance of billionaires
Generations problem: young ones like novelty but lack knowledge, old ones are too conservative
Funding, grants and academic position fight
Memes
Authoritative scientists and their opinions
Personal animosity and rivalry
Cooperation as law status signaling
Collective biases and obstacles in the management of risks
In a comment to my map of biases in x-risks research I got suggestion to add collective biases, so I tried to make their preliminary list and would welcome any suggestions:
“Some biases result from collective behaviour of group of peoples, so that each person seems to be rational but the result is irrational or suboptimal.
Well-known examples are tragedy of the commons, prisoners dilemma and other non optimal Nash equilibriums.
Different form of natural selection may result in such group behaviour, for example psychopaths may easily reach higher status.
It all affects discovery and management of x-risks. Here I will try to list some of such biases in two most important fields: science and management of x-risks.
Collective biases in the field of global risks research
Publication bias
Different schools of thought
It is impossible to read everything – important points are not read
Fraud
Fight for priority
No objective measure of truth in field of x-risks
Betting on small probabilities is impossible
Different languages
Not everything is published
Paywalls
Commercialization
Arrogance of billionaires
Generations problem: young ones like novelty but lack knowledge, old ones are too conservative
Funding, grants and academic position fight
Memes
Authoritative scientists and their opinions
Personal animosity and rivalry
Cooperation as law status signaling
Collective biases and obstacles in the management of risks
Earlier problems have higher priority
Politics and fight for power
Political believes (left and right)
Believes as group membership signs
Religions
Many actors problem (many countries)
Election cycles
Lies and false promises
Corruption
Wars
Communication problems in decision chains
Failure of the ability to predict the future