[LINK] Meteorologists are Epistemically Rational

Nate Silver of the New York Times’s poli­ti­cal pre­dic­tion blog fivethir­tyeight has posted an ex­cerpt of his up­com­ing book on pre­dic­tions in var­i­ous dis­ci­plines, The Sig­nal and the Noise. The ex­cerpt de­scribes how me­te­o­rol­o­gists, in con­trast to prog­nos­ti­ca­tors in other do­mains, have sub­stan­tially im­proved the ac­cu­racy of their pre­dic­tions by un­der­stand­ing the limi­ta­tions of both in­tu­ition and com­puter mod­els, en­abling them to com­bine them in­tel­li­gently rather than rely­ing ex­ces­sively on one or the other.

The ex­cerpt is available at http://​​www.ny­times.com/​​2012/​​09/​​09/​​mag­a­z­ine/​​the-weath­er­man-is-not-a-mo­ron.html?_r=2&page­wanted=all, and a sum­mary is available at http://​​fivethir­tyeight.blogs.ny­times.com/​​2012/​​09/​​09/​​why-weather-fore­cast­ers-are-role-mod­els/​​

Side note: if you are run­ning up against NYT’s 10 ar­ti­cle per month limit, open­ing the links in Incog­nito Mode will get around it.