Is there an arithmetic vs. geometric rationality thing (a la Scott Garrabrant’s recent series) going on with genes?
Like, at equilibrium, the ratio of different genetic variants should be determined by the arithmetic expectation of the number of copies they pass on to the next generation. But for new variants just starting out, the population size (# of copies of that variant) could easily hit 0 and get wiped out, so it should be more cautious—the population should want to maximize the geometric expectation of its growth rate, like a kelly better.
Does this make sense? I don’t know actual population genetics math.
Is there an arithmetic vs. geometric rationality thing (a la Scott Garrabrant’s recent series) going on with genes?
Like, at equilibrium, the ratio of different genetic variants should be determined by the arithmetic expectation of the number of copies they pass on to the next generation. But for new variants just starting out, the population size (# of copies of that variant) could easily hit 0 and get wiped out, so it should be more cautious—the population should want to maximize the geometric expectation of its growth rate, like a kelly better.
Does this make sense? I don’t know actual population genetics math.