I agree that the report conflates these two scales of risk. Fortunately, one nice thing about that table (Table 1 in the paper) is that readers can choose which of these risks they want to prioritize. I think more longtermist-oriented folks should probably weigh the badness of these as Loss on Control being the most bad, followed perhaps by Bad Lock-in, then Misuse and War. But obviously there’s a lot of variance within these.
I agree that there *might* be some cases where policymakers will have difficult trade-offs to make about these risks. I’m not sure how likely I think this is, but I agree it’s a good reason we should keep this nuance insofar as we can. I guess it seems to me like we’re not anywhere near the right decision makers actually making these tradeoffs, nor near them having values that particularly up-weigh the long term future.
I therefore feel okay about lumping these together in a lot of my communication these days. But perhaps this is the wrong call, idk.
I agree that the report conflates these two scales of risk. Fortunately, one nice thing about that table (Table 1 in the paper) is that readers can choose which of these risks they want to prioritize. I think more longtermist-oriented folks should probably weigh the badness of these as Loss on Control being the most bad, followed perhaps by Bad Lock-in, then Misuse and War. But obviously there’s a lot of variance within these.
I agree that there *might* be some cases where policymakers will have difficult trade-offs to make about these risks. I’m not sure how likely I think this is, but I agree it’s a good reason we should keep this nuance insofar as we can. I guess it seems to me like we’re not anywhere near the right decision makers actually making these tradeoffs, nor near them having values that particularly up-weigh the long term future.
I therefore feel okay about lumping these together in a lot of my communication these days. But perhaps this is the wrong call, idk.