Insofar as the numbers signify a subjective degree of belief, one must be able to give one’s best estimate of the numbers, even if they are not the result of a calculation. Eliezer may say “making up random numbers will produce random decisions,” but nonetheless, in the case of anything uncertain, there must be certain wagers he would accept and certain wagers he would reject. So implicitly he must accept some numbers. In fact, it probably would be a good idea for him to attempt to assign more precise probabilities to his opinions, because this would help him to overcome the overconfidence bias to which he is usually subject.
Insofar as the numbers signify a subjective degree of belief, one must be able to give one’s best estimate of the numbers, even if they are not the result of a calculation. Eliezer may say “making up random numbers will produce random decisions,” but nonetheless, in the case of anything uncertain, there must be certain wagers he would accept and certain wagers he would reject. So implicitly he must accept some numbers. In fact, it probably would be a good idea for him to attempt to assign more precise probabilities to his opinions, because this would help him to overcome the overconfidence bias to which he is usually subject.