Maximising your financial return entails that you make omega’s prediction wrong, if you can get it to predict that you one box when you actually two box, you maximise your financial return.
Well, it had better not be predictable that you’re going to try that. I mean, at the point where Omega realizes, “Hey, this guy is going to try an elaborate clever strategy to get me to fill box B and then two-box” It’s pretty much got you pegged.
I never said it was easy thing to do. I just meant that situation is the maximum if it is reachable. Which depends upon the implementation of Omega in the real world.
My point is merely that getting Omega to predict wrong is easy (flip a coin). Getting an expectation value higher than $1 million is what’s hard (and likely impossible, if Omega is much smarter than you, as Eliezer says above).
Maximising your financial return entails that you make omega’s prediction wrong, if you can get it to predict that you one box when you actually two box, you maximise your financial return.
Well, it had better not be predictable that you’re going to try that. I mean, at the point where Omega realizes, “Hey, this guy is going to try an elaborate clever strategy to get me to fill box B and then two-box” It’s pretty much got you pegged.
That’s not so—the “elaborate clever strategy” does include a chance that you’ll one-box. What does the payoff matrix look like from Omega’s side?
I never said it was easy thing to do. I just meant that situation is the maximum if it is reachable. Which depends upon the implementation of Omega in the real world.
My point is merely that getting Omega to predict wrong is easy (flip a coin). Getting an expectation value higher than $1 million is what’s hard (and likely impossible, if Omega is much smarter than you, as Eliezer says above).