This isn’t always the case if the prior puts zero probability weight on the true model. This can be avoided on finite outcome spaces, but for infinite outcome spaces no matter how much evidence you have you may not overcome the prior.
I thought that 0 and 1 were Bayesian sins, unattainable +/- infinity on the log-odds scale, and however strong your priors, you never make them that strong.
In finite dimensional parameter spaces sure, this makes perfect sense. But suppose that we are considering a stochastic process X1, X2, X3, …. where Xn is follows a distribution Pn over the integers. Now put a prior on the distribution and suppose that unbeknown to you Pn is the distribution that puts 1⁄2 probability weight on -n and 1⁄2 probability weight on n. If the prior on the stochastic process does not put increasing weight on integers with large absolute value, then in the limit the prior puts zero probability weight on the true distribution (and may start behaving strangely quite early on in the process).
Another case is that the true probability model may be too complicated to write down or computationally infeasible to do so (say a Gaussian mixture with 10^(10) mixture components, which is certainly reasonable in a modern high-dimensional database), so one may only consider probability distributions that approximate the true distribution and put zero weight on the true model, i.e. it would be sensible in that case to have a prior that may put zero weight on the true model and you would search only for an approximation.
This isn’t always the case if the prior puts zero probability weight on the true model. This can be avoided on finite outcome spaces, but for infinite outcome spaces no matter how much evidence you have you may not overcome the prior.
I thought that 0 and 1 were Bayesian sins, unattainable +/- infinity on the log-odds scale, and however strong your priors, you never make them that strong.
In finite dimensional parameter spaces sure, this makes perfect sense. But suppose that we are considering a stochastic process X1, X2, X3, …. where Xn is follows a distribution Pn over the integers. Now put a prior on the distribution and suppose that unbeknown to you Pn is the distribution that puts 1⁄2 probability weight on -n and 1⁄2 probability weight on n. If the prior on the stochastic process does not put increasing weight on integers with large absolute value, then in the limit the prior puts zero probability weight on the true distribution (and may start behaving strangely quite early on in the process).
Another case is that the true probability model may be too complicated to write down or computationally infeasible to do so (say a Gaussian mixture with 10^(10) mixture components, which is certainly reasonable in a modern high-dimensional database), so one may only consider probability distributions that approximate the true distribution and put zero weight on the true model, i.e. it would be sensible in that case to have a prior that may put zero weight on the true model and you would search only for an approximation.