To clarify: This is because any given hypothesis has a prior proportional to 2^-(complexity), which for any reasonable hypothesis means ludicrously low odds of being true.
Then you update on evidence, and just seeing things gives you megabits to work with, so that goes up significantly for particular hypotheses, but… the point is, even aside from evidence something like “God exists” is starting at a massive penalty compared to physics.
To clarify: This is because any given hypothesis has a prior proportional to 2^-(complexity), which for any reasonable hypothesis means ludicrously low odds of being true.
Then you update on evidence, and just seeing things gives you megabits to work with, so that goes up significantly for particular hypotheses, but… the point is, even aside from evidence something like “God exists” is starting at a massive penalty compared to physics.