Well, Mormonism entails the belief that a civilization of Christian Native Americans existed in historical times, and disappeared prior to European colonization leaving behind no trace whatsoever but a single book made of golden plates that nobody except Joseph Smith and eleven alleged witnesses has ever seen.
How much exactly would we expect to find?
I recall doing some research on the 2012 doomsday thing. As far as I can find, not even the Mayans have any idea what significance that date might have had, and the only reason we have any idea that that date is even a neat point on the calendar is that the Europeans visited just before the Mayans stopped using long count.
Do we have a lot written remains of their religions?
I guess we’d expect to find statues of Jesus (he supposedly visited, complete with holes in his hands and feet). I’m not sure if they would still be recognizable.
Their beliefs are probably more specific, if that’s what you mean, but the contents of the Book of Mormon are specific. You don’t decide that someone is more likely to be lying the longer they talk, purely because what they are saying is getting more specific.
You don’t decide that someone is more likely to be lying the longer they talk, purely because what they are saying is getting more specific.
Lying? No, not necessarily… lying is complicated. But saying something false? Yes, I certainly do. All else being equal, the more specific the claim, the less likely it is to be true.
Of course, in real-world cases all else is never equal… but the generalization I quote above simply doesn’t hold.
It’s unlikely for any specific statement to be true. It is also unlikely for someone to say it. Depending on the relative likelihoods, the probability of what they’re saying can go up or down as they add new statements. The conjugation fallacy is when you don’t realize that the probability goes down when there is no evidence.
Depending on the relative likelihoods, the probability of what they’re saying can go up or down as they add new statements.
Eh? I’m not sure I’ve understood this. Are you saying that there exists a pair of statements (A, B) such that “A & B” is more probable than “A”? (That’s what it seems to mean for the probability of a statement to go up as the speaker adds new statements.) If so, can you give me an example?
I’m saying that there exists a pair of statements (A, B) such that P(A&B|Person says A&B) > P(A|Person says A).
As an example, suppose I told you that Boston once flooded with molasses. This is an unlikely statement, and seems like the sort of thing someone would tell you as a joke.
Now suppose I instead gave you an entire article. That’s pretty far to go for a joke. Each detail in that article is unlikely, but it’s just as unlikely that I’d make up those particular details in addition to being unlikely that I’d be making up that many details in the first place. As such, you’d be more likely to think I’m telling the truth.
Now suppose I hand you a copy of Wikipedia, and point out that article. I might make up a single article. The Onion makes up silly stuff like that all the time. But there’s no way someone will write an entire encyclopedia that generally seems sensible and self-consistent, just so you would believe that one article on a molasses flood. A priori, the idea of Wikipedia being almost all true is absurd, but then, so is the idea that someone would write that exact encyclopedia.
What makes it unbelievable that Boston flooded with molasses is the implied scale. The article is about several blocks flooding, not about “Boston” flooding; the original claim remains unbelievable.
Also, but unrelated, you need to remember that if other statements can increase credibility, they can also reduce it. If you told me Boston was flooded with molasses on the scale implied by that statement, and then directed me to a site that had some good articles but also promoted perpetual motion machines, I wouldn’t give the claim any more credibility. It is true that nobody would make all that stuff up for a joke, but people can make up huge quantities of stuff under self-delusion.
if other statements can increase credibility, they can also reduce it.
Sure, but it’s utterly unsurprising that there exists a B such that P(A&B) P(A) is more surprising, which is why I’d asked for an example of what DanielLC had in mind by it.
Your probability theory here is flawed. The question is not about P(A&B), the probability that both are true, but about P(A|B), the probability that A is true given that B is true. If A is “has cancer” and B is “cancer test is positive”, then we calculate P(A|B) as P(B|A)P(A)/P(B); that is, if there’s a 1/1000 chance of cancer and and the test is right 99⁄100, then P(A|B) is .99.001/(.001.99+.999.01) which is about 1 in 10.
I suppose, given the context, I should say out loud that it wasn’t me, both because I don’t find it downvoteworthy and because I make a practice of not downvoting comments that reply to mine or that I reply to.
I endorse not trying to read much into one or two downvotes… the voting behavior of arbitrarily selected individuals in a group like this doesn’t necessarily mean much.
The way to fix the formatting is to use a \ in front of the asterisk whenever you want to actually display it. This is also necessary for underscores, which some people use in their usernames.
I didn’t downvote it, and don’t have interesting speculation as to why it was downvoted.
Fair enough. I agree that for all B where saying B legitimately increases a speaker’s credibility, observing a speaker saying (A & B) legitimately gives me more confidence in A than the same speaker just saying (A).
Do we have a lot written remains of their religions?
It depends on your definition of “a lot”, but certainly we have texts from pre-Spanish times which have been deciphered and, together with other evidence, give us a fairly good picture of who these people were and what they did believe: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maya_codices
I guess we’d expect to find statues of Jesus (he supposedly visited, complete with holes in his hands and feet). I’m not sure if they would still be recognizable.
We’d expect to find all kinds of written texts, and ruins of cities with inscriptions, statues, temples, tombs, etc. All the kind of stuff that this type of civilizations leave behind.
Their beliefs are probably more specific, if that’s what you mean, but the contents of the Book of Mormon are specific. You don’t decide that someone is more likely to be lying the longer they talk, purely because what they are saying is getting more specific.
It depends on what they say. The more improbable claims that don’t logically imply each other they make, the higher the chance that they are lying.
It depends on your definition of “a lot”, but certainly we have texts from pre-Spanish times which have been deciphered and, together with other evidence, give us a fairly good picture of who these people were and what they did believe:
Alright then. I guess it is highly implausible.
Come to think of it, the bigger problem isn’t what they wrote. It’s what language they wrote it in. I assume it’s clearly not anything that decedents of Hebrews were likely to use. From what I understand of the Book of Mormon, the Lamenites had their own religions, so finding plenty of non-Mormon stuff isn’t too suspicious, but their languages didn’t completely change.
We’d expect to find all kinds of written texts, and ruins of cities with inscriptions, statues, temples, tombs, etc. All the kind of stuff that this type of civilizations leave behind.
Haven’t we? Is there some reason all the stuff we find about the Incas and Mayas etc. don’t count? Besides the writing, which we already discussed?
The more improbable claims that don’t logically imply each other they make, the higher the chance that they are lying.
The longer they talk, the more unlikely it is a priori that what they’re saying is true, but the greater evidence you have (since they’re less likely to make that exact claim). I’d say the stuff in the Book of Mormon is the sort of thing that is more likely for someone to say than for it to be true, so each statement makes it less likely, but if you believe the Bible, you clearly don’t think that.
Wikipedia makes many improbable claims that don’t logically imply each other. I’d say that, a priori, it’s far more likely for the Book of Mormon to be true than Wikipedia to even be mostly true. But since it’s also a priori far less likely for the more detailed Wikipedia to exist, I would be willing to bet at good odds that Wikipedia is almost all true.
How much exactly would we expect to find?
I recall doing some research on the 2012 doomsday thing. As far as I can find, not even the Mayans have any idea what significance that date might have had, and the only reason we have any idea that that date is even a neat point on the calendar is that the Europeans visited just before the Mayans stopped using long count.
Do we have a lot written remains of their religions?
I guess we’d expect to find statues of Jesus (he supposedly visited, complete with holes in his hands and feet). I’m not sure if they would still be recognizable.
Their beliefs are probably more specific, if that’s what you mean, but the contents of the Book of Mormon are specific. You don’t decide that someone is more likely to be lying the longer they talk, purely because what they are saying is getting more specific.
Lying? No, not necessarily… lying is complicated.
But saying something false? Yes, I certainly do.
All else being equal, the more specific the claim, the less likely it is to be true.
Of course, in real-world cases all else is never equal… but the generalization I quote above simply doesn’t hold.
It’s unlikely for any specific statement to be true. It is also unlikely for someone to say it. Depending on the relative likelihoods, the probability of what they’re saying can go up or down as they add new statements. The conjugation fallacy is when you don’t realize that the probability goes down when there is no evidence.
Eh? I’m not sure I’ve understood this.
Are you saying that there exists a pair of statements (A, B) such that “A & B” is more probable than “A”? (That’s what it seems to mean for the probability of a statement to go up as the speaker adds new statements.)
If so, can you give me an example?
I’m saying that there exists a pair of statements (A, B) such that P(A&B|Person says A&B) > P(A|Person says A).
As an example, suppose I told you that Boston once flooded with molasses. This is an unlikely statement, and seems like the sort of thing someone would tell you as a joke.
Now suppose I instead gave you an entire article. That’s pretty far to go for a joke. Each detail in that article is unlikely, but it’s just as unlikely that I’d make up those particular details in addition to being unlikely that I’d be making up that many details in the first place. As such, you’d be more likely to think I’m telling the truth.
Now suppose I hand you a copy of Wikipedia, and point out that article. I might make up a single article. The Onion makes up silly stuff like that all the time. But there’s no way someone will write an entire encyclopedia that generally seems sensible and self-consistent, just so you would believe that one article on a molasses flood. A priori, the idea of Wikipedia being almost all true is absurd, but then, so is the idea that someone would write that exact encyclopedia.
What makes it unbelievable that Boston flooded with molasses is the implied scale. The article is about several blocks flooding, not about “Boston” flooding; the original claim remains unbelievable.
Also, but unrelated, you need to remember that if other statements can increase credibility, they can also reduce it. If you told me Boston was flooded with molasses on the scale implied by that statement, and then directed me to a site that had some good articles but also promoted perpetual motion machines, I wouldn’t give the claim any more credibility. It is true that nobody would make all that stuff up for a joke, but people can make up huge quantities of stuff under self-delusion.
Sure, but it’s utterly unsurprising that there exists a B such that P(A&B) P(A) is more surprising, which is why I’d asked for an example of what DanielLC had in mind by it.
Your probability theory here is flawed. The question is not about P(A&B), the probability that both are true, but about P(A|B), the probability that A is true given that B is true. If A is “has cancer” and B is “cancer test is positive”, then we calculate P(A|B) as P(B|A)P(A)/P(B); that is, if there’s a 1/1000 chance of cancer and and the test is right 99⁄100, then P(A|B) is .99.001/(.001.99+.999.01) which is about 1 in 10.
Can anyone explain why the parent was downvoted? I don’t get it. I hope there’s a better reason than the formatting fail.
I suppose, given the context, I should say out loud that it wasn’t me, both because I don’t find it downvoteworthy and because I make a practice of not downvoting comments that reply to mine or that I reply to.
I endorse not trying to read much into one or two downvotes… the voting behavior of arbitrarily selected individuals in a group like this doesn’t necessarily mean much.
The way to fix the formatting is to use a \ in front of the asterisk whenever you want to actually display it. This is also necessary for underscores, which some people use in their usernames.
I didn’t downvote it, and don’t have interesting speculation as to why it was downvoted.
That’s fair.
Fair enough. I agree that for all B where saying B legitimately increases a speaker’s credibility, observing a speaker saying (A & B) legitimately gives me more confidence in A than the same speaker just saying (A).
It depends on your definition of “a lot”, but certainly we have texts from pre-Spanish times which have been deciphered and, together with other evidence, give us a fairly good picture of who these people were and what they did believe: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maya_codices
We’d expect to find all kinds of written texts, and ruins of cities with inscriptions, statues, temples, tombs, etc. All the kind of stuff that this type of civilizations leave behind.
It depends on what they say. The more improbable claims that don’t logically imply each other they make, the higher the chance that they are lying.
Alright then. I guess it is highly implausible.
Come to think of it, the bigger problem isn’t what they wrote. It’s what language they wrote it in. I assume it’s clearly not anything that decedents of Hebrews were likely to use. From what I understand of the Book of Mormon, the Lamenites had their own religions, so finding plenty of non-Mormon stuff isn’t too suspicious, but their languages didn’t completely change.
Haven’t we? Is there some reason all the stuff we find about the Incas and Mayas etc. don’t count? Besides the writing, which we already discussed?
The longer they talk, the more unlikely it is a priori that what they’re saying is true, but the greater evidence you have (since they’re less likely to make that exact claim). I’d say the stuff in the Book of Mormon is the sort of thing that is more likely for someone to say than for it to be true, so each statement makes it less likely, but if you believe the Bible, you clearly don’t think that.
Wikipedia makes many improbable claims that don’t logically imply each other. I’d say that, a priori, it’s far more likely for the Book of Mormon to be true than Wikipedia to even be mostly true. But since it’s also a priori far less likely for the more detailed Wikipedia to exist, I would be willing to bet at good odds that Wikipedia is almost all true.