I think point (2) of this argument either means something weaker then it needs to for this rest of the argument to go through or is just straightforwardly wrong.
If OpenAI released a weakly general (but non-singularity inducing) GPT5 tomorrow, it would pretty quickly have significant effects on people’s everyday lives. Programmers would vaguely described a new feature and the AI would implement it, AIs would polish any writing I do, I would stop using google to research things and instead just chat with the AI and have it explain such-and-such paper I need for my work. In their spare time people would read custom books (or watch custom movies) tailored to their extremely niche interests. This would have a significant impact on the everyday lives of people within a month.
It seems concievable that somehow the “socio-economic benefits” wouldn’t be as significant that quickly—I don’t really know what “socio-economic benefits” are exactly.
However, the rest of your post seems to treat point (2) as proving that there would be no upside from a more powerful AI being released sooner. This feels like a case of a fancy clever theory confusing an obvious reality: better AI would impact a lot of people very quickly.
This would have a significant impact on the everyday lives of people within a month.
It would have a drastic impact on your life in a month. However, you are a member of a tiny fraction of humanity, sufficiently interested and knowledgeable about AI to browse and post on a forum that’s devoted to a particularly arcane branch of AI research (i.e. AI safety). You are in no way representative. Neither am I. Nor is, to a first approximation, anyone who posts here.
The average American (who, in turn, isn’t exactly representative of the world) has only a vague idea of what ChatGPT is. They’ve seen some hype videos on TV or on YouTube. Maybe they’ve seen one of their more technically sophisticated friends or relatives use it. But they don’t really know what it’s good for, they don’t know how it would integrate into their lives, and they’re put off by the numerous flaws they’ve heard about with regards to generative models. If OpenAI came out with GPT-5 tomorrow, and it fixed all, or almost all, of the flaws in GPT-4, it would still take years, at least, and possibly decades before it was integrated into the economy in a way that the average American would be able to perceive.
This has nothing to do with the merits of the technology. It has to do with the psychology of people. People’s appetite for novelty varies, like many other psychological traits, along a spectrum. On one hand, you have people like Balaji Srinivasan, who excitedly talk about every new technology, whether it be software, financial, or AI. At the other end, you have people like George R. R. Martin, who’re still using software written in the 1980s for their work, just because it’s what they’re familiar and competent with. Most people, I’d venture to guess, are somewhere in the middle. LessWrong is far towards the novelty-seeking end of the spectrum, at, or possibly farther ahead than Balaji Srinivasan. New advancements in AI affect us because we are open to being affected by them, in a way that most people are not.
I’m a bit confused where you’re getting your impression of the average person / American, but I’d be happy to bet on LLMs that are at least as capable as GPT3.5 being used (directly or indirectly) on at least a monthly basis by the majority of Americans within the next year?
How would you measure the usage? If, for example, Google integrates Bard into its main search engine, as they are rumored to be doing, would that count as usage? If so, I would agree with your assessment.
However, I disagree that this would be a “drastic” impact. A better Google search is nice, but it’s not life-changing in a way that would be noticed by someone who isn’t deeply aware of and interested in technology. It’s not like, e.g. Google Maps navigation suddenly allowing you to find your way around a strange city without having to buy any maps or decipher local road signs.
I’m specifically interested in finding something you’d be willing to bet on—I can’t find an existing manifold market, would you want to create one that you can decide? I’d be fine trusting your judgment.
FWIW South Park released an episode this season with ChatGPT as its main focus. I do think that public perception is probably moving fairly quickly on things like this these days. But I agree with you generally that if you’re posting here about these things then you’re likely more on the forefront than the average American.
I think point (2) of this argument either means something weaker then it needs to for this rest of the argument to go through or is just straightforwardly wrong.
If OpenAI released a weakly general (but non-singularity inducing) GPT5 tomorrow, it would pretty quickly have significant effects on people’s everyday lives. Programmers would vaguely described a new feature and the AI would implement it, AIs would polish any writing I do, I would stop using google to research things and instead just chat with the AI and have it explain such-and-such paper I need for my work. In their spare time people would read custom books (or watch custom movies) tailored to their extremely niche interests. This would have a significant impact on the everyday lives of people within a month.
It seems concievable that somehow the “socio-economic benefits” wouldn’t be as significant that quickly—I don’t really know what “socio-economic benefits” are exactly.
However, the rest of your post seems to treat point (2) as proving that there would be no upside from a more powerful AI being released sooner. This feels like a case of a fancy clever theory confusing an obvious reality: better AI would impact a lot of people very quickly.
It would have a drastic impact on your life in a month. However, you are a member of a tiny fraction of humanity, sufficiently interested and knowledgeable about AI to browse and post on a forum that’s devoted to a particularly arcane branch of AI research (i.e. AI safety). You are in no way representative. Neither am I. Nor is, to a first approximation, anyone who posts here.
The average American (who, in turn, isn’t exactly representative of the world) has only a vague idea of what ChatGPT is. They’ve seen some hype videos on TV or on YouTube. Maybe they’ve seen one of their more technically sophisticated friends or relatives use it. But they don’t really know what it’s good for, they don’t know how it would integrate into their lives, and they’re put off by the numerous flaws they’ve heard about with regards to generative models. If OpenAI came out with GPT-5 tomorrow, and it fixed all, or almost all, of the flaws in GPT-4, it would still take years, at least, and possibly decades before it was integrated into the economy in a way that the average American would be able to perceive.
This has nothing to do with the merits of the technology. It has to do with the psychology of people. People’s appetite for novelty varies, like many other psychological traits, along a spectrum. On one hand, you have people like Balaji Srinivasan, who excitedly talk about every new technology, whether it be software, financial, or AI. At the other end, you have people like George R. R. Martin, who’re still using software written in the 1980s for their work, just because it’s what they’re familiar and competent with. Most people, I’d venture to guess, are somewhere in the middle. LessWrong is far towards the novelty-seeking end of the spectrum, at, or possibly farther ahead than Balaji Srinivasan. New advancements in AI affect us because we are open to being affected by them, in a way that most people are not.
I’m a bit confused where you’re getting your impression of the average person / American, but I’d be happy to bet on LLMs that are at least as capable as GPT3.5 being used (directly or indirectly) on at least a monthly basis by the majority of Americans within the next year?
How would you measure the usage? If, for example, Google integrates Bard into its main search engine, as they are rumored to be doing, would that count as usage? If so, I would agree with your assessment.
However, I disagree that this would be a “drastic” impact. A better Google search is nice, but it’s not life-changing in a way that would be noticed by someone who isn’t deeply aware of and interested in technology. It’s not like, e.g. Google Maps navigation suddenly allowing you to find your way around a strange city without having to buy any maps or decipher local road signs.
“Directly or indirectly” is a bit vague. Maybe make a market on Manifold if one doesn’t exist already.
I’m specifically interested in finding something you’d be willing to bet on—I can’t find an existing manifold market, would you want to create one that you can decide? I’d be fine trusting your judgment.
FWIW South Park released an episode this season with ChatGPT as its main focus. I do think that public perception is probably moving fairly quickly on things like this these days. But I agree with you generally that if you’re posting here about these things then you’re likely more on the forefront than the average American.