This implies that ChatGPT-4 could’ve been released in 2028–2033 and we would’ve yielded the same socio-economic benefits. Why? Because the bottleneck on labour automation isn’t that companies need a GPT-4-based chatbot rather than a GPT-3-based chatbot, but rather that firing employees happens very slowly, over years, not weeks.
Hm, somewhat disagree here with the specific line of thought—in the end, GPT-4 does pretty much the same things as GPT-3.5, just better. It ended up being the premium, higher quality version of an otherwise free service. Two different tiers. I don’t think there’s this effect because I think what’s actually going to happen is just that people who are willing to pay and think they can get a benefit from it jump directly to GPT-4, and all they gain from it is “less mistakes, higher quality content”. In general, it’s not like innovations come one at a time anyway; this is just the unusual case of a company essentially obsoleting its own product in a matter of months.
Mind you, I’m with you on the issue of shocks and potential risks coming with this. But I think we would have had them anyway, they’re kind of part and parcel of how disruptive this tech can be (and sadly, it is the most disruptive for parasitic sectors like propaganda and scamming).
Hm, somewhat disagree here with the specific line of thought—in the end, GPT-4 does pretty much the same things as GPT-3.5, just better. It ended up being the premium, higher quality version of an otherwise free service. Two different tiers. I don’t think there’s this effect because I think what’s actually going to happen is just that people who are willing to pay and think they can get a benefit from it jump directly to GPT-4, and all they gain from it is “less mistakes, higher quality content”. In general, it’s not like innovations come one at a time anyway; this is just the unusual case of a company essentially obsoleting its own product in a matter of months.
Mind you, I’m with you on the issue of shocks and potential risks coming with this. But I think we would have had them anyway, they’re kind of part and parcel of how disruptive this tech can be (and sadly, it is the most disruptive for parasitic sectors like propaganda and scamming).