I can give you my take: it would be foolish to think that GPT-2030 would be an LLM as-we-know-it with the primary change being more params/compute/data. There have already been algorithmic improvements with each GPT version increase, and that will be the primary driver of capabilities advances going forwards. We know, from observing the details of brains via neuroscience, that there are algorithmic advances to be made that will result in huge leaps of ability in specific strategically-relevant domains, such as long-horizon planning and strategic reasoning. In order to project that GPT-2030 won’t have superhuman capabilities, you must explicitly state that you believe the ML research community will fail at replicating these algorithmic capabilities of the human brain. Then you must justify that assertion.
I can give you my take: it would be foolish to think that GPT-2030 would be an LLM as-we-know-it with the primary change being more params/compute/data. There have already been algorithmic improvements with each GPT version increase, and that will be the primary driver of capabilities advances going forwards. We know, from observing the details of brains via neuroscience, that there are algorithmic advances to be made that will result in huge leaps of ability in specific strategically-relevant domains, such as long-horizon planning and strategic reasoning. In order to project that GPT-2030 won’t have superhuman capabilities, you must explicitly state that you believe the ML research community will fail at replicating these algorithmic capabilities of the human brain. Then you must justify that assertion.