If you don’t know whether you’re a simulation or not, you don’t know whether or not your taking the second box will cause the real-world money not to be there.
And, as a simulation, you probably won’t get to spend any of that sim-world money you’ve got there.
To be fair, I don’t particularly use CDT consciously, because it seems to be flawed somehow (or at least, harder to use than intuition, and I’m lazy). But I came across newcomb’s paradox, thought about it, and realised that in the traditional formulation I’m probably a simulation.
I don’t see why realising I’m probably a simulation is something a CDT agent can’t do?
If you don’t know whether you’re a simulation or not, you don’t know whether or not your taking the second box will cause the real-world money not to be there. And, as a simulation, you probably won’t get to spend any of that sim-world money you’ve got there.
Replace ‘Omega’ with Patrick Jane. No sims. What do you do?
A) I one-box. I will one-box in most reasonable scenarios.
B)How do you predict other people’s actions?
Personally, I mentally simulate them. Not particularly well, mind, but I do mentally simulate them.
Am I unusual in this?
I’ve never watched the Mentalist, but if Patrick Jane is sufficiently good to get a 99% success rate, I’m guessing his simulations are pretty damn good.
If you don’t know whether you’re a simulation or not, you don’t know whether or not your taking the second box will cause the real-world money not to be there. And, as a simulation, you probably won’t get to spend any of that sim-world money you’ve got there.
To be fair, I don’t particularly use CDT consciously, because it seems to be flawed somehow (or at least, harder to use than intuition, and I’m lazy). But I came across newcomb’s paradox, thought about it, and realised that in the traditional formulation I’m probably a simulation.
I don’t see why realising I’m probably a simulation is something a CDT agent can’t do?
Replace ‘Omega’ with Patrick Jane. No sims. What do you do?
A) I one-box. I will one-box in most reasonable scenarios.
B)How do you predict other people’s actions?
Personally, I mentally simulate them. Not particularly well, mind, but I do mentally simulate them. Am I unusual in this?
I’ve never watched the Mentalist, but if Patrick Jane is sufficiently good to get a 99% success rate, I’m guessing his simulations are pretty damn good.
Patrick Jane is a fictional character in the TV show The Mentalist. He’s a former (fake) psychic who now uses his cold reading skills to fight crime.
Cheers, had been looking that up, oddly my edit to my post didn’t seem to update it.