While the consensus on Less Wrong is that one boxing on Newcomb’s Problem is the rational decision, my understanding is that this opinion is not necessarily held uniformly amongst philosophers
That’s correct. See, for instance, the PhilPapers Survey of 931 philosophy professors, which found that only 21% favored one boxing vs. 31% who favored two boxing; 43% said other (mostly undecided or insufficiently familiar with the issue). Among the 31 philosophers who specialize in decision theory, there was a big shift from other (down to 13%) to two boxing (up to 61%), and still only 26% favored one boxing.
I’m not sure I actually believe this survey. Sure, these people claim they’d two box in academic papers, and in surveys—that’s easy enough to do—but would any of them actually be committed enough to two-boxing to turn down $1 million if they every found themselves in the actual set-up?
My feelings are the opposite. I’m committed to one-boxing (just in case Omega is scanning my brain right now), but I’m not at all sure that I’d stick to that commitment with a box of $1000 sitting right there in front of me free for the taking. (Don’t listen, Omega, move on, nothing to see here).
That’s correct. See, for instance, the PhilPapers Survey of 931 philosophy professors, which found that only 21% favored one boxing vs. 31% who favored two boxing; 43% said other (mostly undecided or insufficiently familiar with the issue). Among the 31 philosophers who specialize in decision theory, there was a big shift from other (down to 13%) to two boxing (up to 61%), and still only 26% favored one boxing.
I’m not sure I actually believe this survey. Sure, these people claim they’d two box in academic papers, and in surveys—that’s easy enough to do—but would any of them actually be committed enough to two-boxing to turn down $1 million if they every found themselves in the actual set-up?
My feelings are the opposite. I’m committed to one-boxing (just in case Omega is scanning my brain right now), but I’m not at all sure that I’d stick to that commitment with a box of $1000 sitting right there in front of me free for the taking. (Don’t listen, Omega, move on, nothing to see here).