Hm, that’s a good point. I don’t know how to express that cleanly, but there are other intermediate options in which the US moves slower, but still enough that there’s a >50% chance of them getting TAI first, or they pull the brakes & alarms so that the PRC also slows down.
You could model it as a binary P(US wins | US races) and P(US wins | US does not race). A continuum would be more accurate but I think a binary is basically fine.
I saw your model on squigglehub, but didn’t dig into it too deeply. I encourage you to post it on here with or without an explanation :-)
Posting the model is on my to-do list but I am not very satisfied with it right now so I want to fix it up some more. I want to make a bigger model that looks at all the main effects of slowing down, not just race dynamics, although perhaps that’s too ambitious.
You could model it as a binary P(US wins | US races) and P(US wins | US does not race). A continuum would be more accurate but I think a binary is basically fine.
Posting the model is on my to-do list but I am not very satisfied with it right now so I want to fix it up some more. I want to make a bigger model that looks at all the main effects of slowing down, not just race dynamics, although perhaps that’s too ambitious.