I’ve long had some sense like this, though not the expertise to make a claim like this.
My impression is that a lot of the conceit of forecasting and prediction markets boils down to
People can learn to think better via the real-world feedback of predictions;
You can find people or groups that are good at forecasting, e.g. through prediction markets;
Then you can somewhat rely on their predictions
And you can learn how they made their predictions and thereby get better world models in general
Have things like this happened? E.g.
Are there important strategic X-derisking decisions that have been made based on finding someone who’s good at forecasting in general and then asking them to make predictions? (And do those seem like good decisions / for the right reasons?)
Have some people discovered through markets gone on to have a bunch of useful thoughts due to their forecasting skills / world models? Were they signal boosted in advance because of their known prediction market success?
I’ve long had some sense like this, though not the expertise to make a claim like this.
My impression is that a lot of the conceit of forecasting and prediction markets boils down to
People can learn to think better via the real-world feedback of predictions;
You can find people or groups that are good at forecasting, e.g. through prediction markets;
Then you can somewhat rely on their predictions
And you can learn how they made their predictions and thereby get better world models in general
Have things like this happened? E.g.
Are there important strategic X-derisking decisions that have been made based on finding someone who’s good at forecasting in general and then asking them to make predictions? (And do those seem like good decisions / for the right reasons?)
Have some people discovered through markets gone on to have a bunch of useful thoughts due to their forecasting skills / world models? Were they signal boosted in advance because of their known prediction market success?