I find it hard to tell how much impact widespread forecasting has. You go into the lack of tangible impact in the post but it’s hard to prove a negative (forecasting has had no impact). It’s also hard to prove real but intangible impact. I trust your opinion as an expert forecaster more than mine but I’m confused here.
One personal forecasting impact I’ve observed is the ability to point to existing prediction market. For example, someone writes a post about China definitely invading Taiwan in 2026. It’s hard for me to tell how good their argument is. With prediction markets I can find that market and get a more objective take. I can ask the post author how much money they put into the market, seeing they stand to make a lot of money correcting it.
This isn’t knock down argument against your post. I’m just giving a specific example of less tangible impact. Multiplied over many people making slightly better decisions that might be high impact. It can both be true that this impact is real and EA effort should go elsewhere.
I find it hard to tell how much impact widespread forecasting has. You go into the lack of tangible impact in the post but it’s hard to prove a negative (forecasting has had no impact). It’s also hard to prove real but intangible impact. I trust your opinion as an expert forecaster more than mine but I’m confused here.
One personal forecasting impact I’ve observed is the ability to point to existing prediction market. For example, someone writes a post about China definitely invading Taiwan in 2026. It’s hard for me to tell how good their argument is. With prediction markets I can find that market and get a more objective take. I can ask the post author how much money they put into the market, seeing they stand to make a lot of money correcting it.
This isn’t knock down argument against your post. I’m just giving a specific example of less tangible impact. Multiplied over many people making slightly better decisions that might be high impact. It can both be true that this impact is real and EA effort should go elsewhere.