What is the current probability of Nikita Khruschev ordering a nuclear strike on the United States? What was this probability 55 years ago and what happened to it?
The current probability is pretty low. It was higher before and dropped pretty dramatically in 1971. It is also currently getting lower since it is becoming more difficult to resurrect him. But it is nowhere near zero yet.
On the other hand, this may satisfy the condition of constantly getting lower, so it may never actually happen.
Not true. For example, if the probability of the terrible scenario at some point drops to zero, that is sufficient.
Zero? What’s that?
It’s that which is not a probability :-P
Yes, I was assuming that we are assigning reasonable probabilities.
What is the current probability of Nikita Khruschev ordering a nuclear strike on the United States? What was this probability 55 years ago and what happened to it?
The current probability is pretty low. It was higher before and dropped pretty dramatically in 1971. It is also currently getting lower since it is becoming more difficult to resurrect him. But it is nowhere near zero yet.
On the other hand, this may satisfy the condition of constantly getting lower, so it may never actually happen.
Tell me more about this resurrection thing and why do you think it’s becoming more difficult as time passes.
More scattering of information, presumably.
The second law of thermodynamics I see...