I don’t care to run it, but if there were going to be such a poll among some population that I have any clue about, I would be up for betting on the results. I would guess Eliezer to rate in the top decile for population public speaking ability and above median among e.g. all LW participants.
I hadn’t seen that poll until now. I think it’s totally consistent with Eliezer being a good figurehead for his beliefs? Eliezer is arguing for a surprising and alarming conclusion so 45% taking him seriously just seems like a good achievement.
In general I expect that it’s just going to be hard to convince people, so I don’t think that because everyone isn’t convinced, that means that Eliezer is doing a bad job.
The poll wasn’t about “Do you Agree with Yudkowsky on AI Safety”, it was about whether or not one should take him seriously. Personally, if I think someone’s argument is very bad, I still might think they are worth taking seriously due to their credibility, and assume others believe the same (For instance, I take William Lane Craig decently seriously even if I disagree with his arguments for god). Thus, I still think this poll is the best evidence we have for whether or not Eliezer Yudkowsky is persuasive to a general audience.
I don’t care to run it, but if there were going to be such a poll among some population that I have any clue about, I would be up for betting on the results. I would guess Eliezer to rate in the top decile for population public speaking ability and above median among e.g. all LW participants.
How do you explain the results in the Reddit poll I linked to from r/SamHarris then?
I hadn’t seen that poll until now. I think it’s totally consistent with Eliezer being a good figurehead for his beliefs? Eliezer is arguing for a surprising and alarming conclusion so 45% taking him seriously just seems like a good achievement.
In general I expect that it’s just going to be hard to convince people, so I don’t think that because everyone isn’t convinced, that means that Eliezer is doing a bad job.
The poll wasn’t about “Do you Agree with Yudkowsky on AI Safety”, it was about whether or not one should take him seriously. Personally, if I think someone’s argument is very bad, I still might think they are worth taking seriously due to their credibility, and assume others believe the same (For instance, I take William Lane Craig decently seriously even if I disagree with his arguments for god). Thus, I still think this poll is the best evidence we have for whether or not Eliezer Yudkowsky is persuasive to a general audience.