It was originally said of certain things where failure could be offset by success, and for some reason we had heuristics that prioritized safety over average success. Such as some kinds of social interaction.
But in many, perhaps most, endeavors, it’s rational to value safety over pure long-term expected utility. I have so far always succeeded at surviving despite having had cancer and driving a car every day. But that does not mean I should take more risks and try an experimental therapy for my diabetes.
It was originally said of certain things where failure could be offset by success, and for some reason we had heuristics that prioritized safety over average success.
Yes. The usual quote is, “If you never miss a plane, you’re spending too much time at the airport.” (Attributed to George Stigler.)
Agreed: don’t generalize this out of context.
It was originally said of certain things where failure could be offset by success, and for some reason we had heuristics that prioritized safety over average success. Such as some kinds of social interaction.
But in many, perhaps most, endeavors, it’s rational to value safety over pure long-term expected utility. I have so far always succeeded at surviving despite having had cancer and driving a car every day. But that does not mean I should take more risks and try an experimental therapy for my diabetes.
Yes. The usual quote is, “If you never miss a plane, you’re spending too much time at the airport.” (Attributed to George Stigler.)
I had been attributing it to Umesh Vazirani all this time. Thanks!
If you never find yourself wrongly attributing quotes, you’re spending too much time checking sources? Gwern is excluded from this heuristic.
Attribute everything to “Internet saying”
I thought that was one of the points being made in the post, ask why the heuristic is true to see if it applies in this specific case.
Yes, and I was expanding on when and why it does not apply.