Roland: I don’t think that this is at all common, at least for highly intelligent people and important practical questions. Even for a machine as complex as a space shuttle Feynman was able to point out that the Challenger explosion was due to defects in the deliberative process being used, not simply due to honest mistakes. Deep mistakes, such as the ones that prevented me from really seriously orienting my efforts around transhumanist concerns at the age Eliezer did, are not, in my experience honest mistakes.
Roland: I don’t think that this is at all common, at least for highly intelligent people and important practical questions. Even for a machine as complex as a space shuttle Feynman was able to point out that the Challenger explosion was due to defects in the deliberative process being used, not simply due to honest mistakes. Deep mistakes, such as the ones that prevented me from really seriously orienting my efforts around transhumanist concerns at the age Eliezer did, are not, in my experience honest mistakes.