the overreaction was foreseeable in advance, not just in hindsight
To paraphrase what my brain is hearing from you, Eliezer:
In 2001, you would have predicted, “In 2007, I will believe that the U.S. overreacted between 2001 and 2007.”
In 2007, your prediction is true: you personally believe the U.S. overreacted.
Not very impressive. (I know lots of people who can successfully predict that they will have the same political beliefs six years from now, no matter what intervening evidence occurs between now and then! It’s not something that you should take pride in. :-)
I would suggest you join a prediction market if you believe you have an uncanny, cross-domain knack for consistently predicting the future, except that I don’t want to distract you from your AI work.
the overreaction was foreseeable in advance, not just in hindsight
To paraphrase what my brain is hearing from you, Eliezer:
In 2001, you would have predicted, “In 2007, I will believe that the U.S. overreacted between 2001 and 2007.”
In 2007, your prediction is true: you personally believe the U.S. overreacted.
Not very impressive. (I know lots of people who can successfully predict that they will have the same political beliefs six years from now, no matter what intervening evidence occurs between now and then! It’s not something that you should take pride in. :-)
I would suggest you join a prediction market if you believe you have an uncanny, cross-domain knack for consistently predicting the future, except that I don’t want to distract you from your AI work.