“I would have preferred, for example, that the U.S., Russia, China, UK, Israel and perhaps France announced that in one year they will declare war an any other nation that either has weapons of mass destruction or doesn’t allow highly intrusive inspections to make sure they don’t have weapons of mass destruction.”
James D. Miller, I think your idea has possibilities. However, it would be very hard for it to succeed with israel on the list of nations that has nukes but denies them to others. Israel would have to be one of the nations that would be destroyed if it keeps nuclear weapons or refuses highly intrusive inspections.
What about india? Shouldn’t they be on the list? We don’t want war with india, they haven’t threatened anybody except, well, pakistan.
And what about pakistan? If we let india keep nukes it would be hard to invade pakistan over their nukes. Should pakistan be one of the nations of the alliance that will destroy anybody else who has nukes?
Now it looks like a hard problem. No, your idea does not look workable. Allow russia to have nukes but not china? No. Allow china to have nukes but not india? Hardly. Allow india to have nukes but not pakistan? Tempting, but no. Allow pakistan to have nukes but not israel? It would be a good idea but it won’t fly. Allow israel to have nukes but not syria? A pleasant thought but not practical. Allow israel and arab nations both to have nukes? Not practical either.
There’s a logic here that hasn’t played out yet. It goes:
You don’t need nukes unless you have enemies.
If you get nukes, after awhile your enemies will too, and you can’t stop this.
If you and your enemies have nukes then you will be worse off than if neither you nor your enemies have nukes.
Therefore:
Don’t get nukes.
The world as a whole hasn’t recognised this logic yet because there haven’t been any graphic examples. Probably after the second nuclear war, when the world sees what happens to the “winner”, people will have a much clearer idea about it. But two nuclear wars will be hard on the world. Ideally these wars would involve small countries so they can be small nuclear wars.
So most of us will be better off if lebanon gets nukes. Then a nuclear war between lebanon and israel could be one of the smallest possible nuclear wars.
The next obvious choice is a war between libya and chad.
After 2 nuclear wars the world as a whole will be much more ready for disarmament then they are now, with nuclear war a threat that has not materialised for 62 years.
Ir’a much much easier to stop people from doing something they didn’t want to do in the first place, than stop them from something they think can keep you from dominating them.
The 4-step logic you talk about may be difficult to implement—you describe a Prisoner’s Dilemma, but suggest playing Cooperate. Empirically, this can be tough to maintain.
“I would have preferred, for example, that the U.S., Russia, China, UK, Israel and perhaps France announced that in one year they will declare war an any other nation that either has weapons of mass destruction or doesn’t allow highly intrusive inspections to make sure they don’t have weapons of mass destruction.”
James D. Miller, I think your idea has possibilities. However, it would be very hard for it to succeed with israel on the list of nations that has nukes but denies them to others. Israel would have to be one of the nations that would be destroyed if it keeps nuclear weapons or refuses highly intrusive inspections.
What about india? Shouldn’t they be on the list? We don’t want war with india, they haven’t threatened anybody except, well, pakistan.
And what about pakistan? If we let india keep nukes it would be hard to invade pakistan over their nukes. Should pakistan be one of the nations of the alliance that will destroy anybody else who has nukes?
Now it looks like a hard problem. No, your idea does not look workable. Allow russia to have nukes but not china? No. Allow china to have nukes but not india? Hardly. Allow india to have nukes but not pakistan? Tempting, but no. Allow pakistan to have nukes but not israel? It would be a good idea but it won’t fly. Allow israel to have nukes but not syria? A pleasant thought but not practical. Allow israel and arab nations both to have nukes? Not practical either.
There’s a logic here that hasn’t played out yet. It goes:
You don’t need nukes unless you have enemies.
If you get nukes, after awhile your enemies will too, and you can’t stop this.
If you and your enemies have nukes then you will be worse off than if neither you nor your enemies have nukes.
Therefore:
Don’t get nukes.
The world as a whole hasn’t recognised this logic yet because there haven’t been any graphic examples. Probably after the second nuclear war, when the world sees what happens to the “winner”, people will have a much clearer idea about it. But two nuclear wars will be hard on the world. Ideally these wars would involve small countries so they can be small nuclear wars.
So most of us will be better off if lebanon gets nukes. Then a nuclear war between lebanon and israel could be one of the smallest possible nuclear wars.
The next obvious choice is a war between libya and chad.
After 2 nuclear wars the world as a whole will be much more ready for disarmament then they are now, with nuclear war a threat that has not materialised for 62 years.
Ir’a much much easier to stop people from doing something they didn’t want to do in the first place, than stop them from something they think can keep you from dominating them.
The 4-step logic you talk about may be difficult to implement—you describe a Prisoner’s Dilemma, but suggest playing Cooperate. Empirically, this can be tough to maintain.
Freely after Ian M Banks