Here’s another attempt at explaining your error (as it appears to me):
In the terminology of Wei Dai’s original post an updateless agent considers the consequences of a program S(X) returning Y on input X, where X includes all observations and memories, and the agent is updateless in respect to things included in X. For an ideal updateless agent this X includes everything, including the memory of having seen the calculator come up even. So it does not make sense for such an agent to consider the unconditional strategy of choosing even, and doing so does not properly model an updating agent choosing even after seeing even, it models an updating agent choosing even without having seen anything.
An obvious simplification of an (computationally extremely expensive) updateless agent would be to simplify X. If X is made up of the parts X1 and X2 and X1 is identical for all instances of S being called, then it makes sense to incorporate X1 into a modified version of S, S’ (more precisely the part of S or S’ that generates the world programs S or S’ tries to maximize). In that case a normal Bayesian update would be performed (UDT is not a blanket rejection of Bayesianism, see Wei Dai’s original post). S’ would be updateless with resepct to X2, but not with respect to X1. If X1 is indeed always part of the argument when S is called S’ should always give back the same output as S.
Your utility implies an S’ with respect to having observed “even”, but without the corresponding update, so it generates faulty world programs, and a different utility expectation than the original S or a correctly simplified version S″ (which in this case is not updateless because there is nothing else to be updateless towards).
Here’s another attempt at explaining your error (as it appears to me):
In the terminology of Wei Dai’s original post an updateless agent considers the consequences of a program S(X) returning Y on input X, where X includes all observations and memories, and the agent is updateless in respect to things included in X. For an ideal updateless agent this X includes everything, including the memory of having seen the calculator come up even. So it does not make sense for such an agent to consider the unconditional strategy of choosing even, and doing so does not properly model an updating agent choosing even after seeing even, it models an updating agent choosing even without having seen anything.
An obvious simplification of an (computationally extremely expensive) updateless agent would be to simplify X. If X is made up of the parts X1 and X2 and X1 is identical for all instances of S being called, then it makes sense to incorporate X1 into a modified version of S, S’ (more precisely the part of S or S’ that generates the world programs S or S’ tries to maximize). In that case a normal Bayesian update would be performed (UDT is not a blanket rejection of Bayesianism, see Wei Dai’s original post). S’ would be updateless with resepct to X2, but not with respect to X1. If X1 is indeed always part of the argument when S is called S’ should always give back the same output as S.
Your utility implies an S’ with respect to having observed “even”, but without the corresponding update, so it generates faulty world programs, and a different utility expectation than the original S or a correctly simplified version S″ (which in this case is not updateless because there is nothing else to be updateless towards).
(This question seems to depend on resolving this first.)