Still wrong (99%/1% figures are incorrect), although maybe starting from a correct intuition.
Why has nobody posted a careful UDT analysis yet, just to see what actually goes on in the problem? I expected better, hence didn’t include such analysis myself. The topic of the post is not how to solve the thought experiment, that must be obvious with UDT. It’s about the nature of our apparently somewhat broken intuition of observational knowledge. Although at least one should clearly see the UDT analysis first, in order to discuss that.
Still wrong (99%/1% figures are incorrect), although maybe starting from a correct intuition.
Why has nobody posted a careful UDT analysis yet, just to see what actually goes on in the problem? I expected better, hence didn’t include such analysis myself. The topic of the post is not how to solve the thought experiment, that must be obvious with UDT. It’s about the nature of our apparently somewhat broken intuition of observational knowledge. Although at least one should clearly see the UDT analysis first, in order to discuss that.