probability mass for AI that can automate all AI research is in the 2030s … broadly due to the tariffs and …
Without AGI, scaling of hardware runs into the financial ~$200bn individual training system cost wall in 2027-2029. Any tribulations on the way (or conversely efforts to pool heterogeneous and geographically distributed compute) only delay that point slightly (when compared to the current pace of increase in funding), and you end up in approximately the same place, slowing down to the speed of advancement in FLOP/s per watt (or per dollar). Without transformative AI, anything close to the current pace is unlikely to last into the 2030s.
Without AGI, scaling of hardware runs into the financial ~$200bn individual training system cost wall in 2027-2029. Any tribulations on the way (or conversely efforts to pool heterogeneous and geographically distributed compute) only delay that point slightly (when compared to the current pace of increase in funding), and you end up in approximately the same place, slowing down to the speed of advancement in FLOP/s per watt (or per dollar). Without transformative AI, anything close to the current pace is unlikely to last into the 2030s.