The real point is where capital investment into AI declines because the economy tips over into a mild recession, and I’d like to see whether the tariffs make it likely that future AI investments decrease over time, meaning the timeline to superintelligent AI gets longer.
Of course, tariffs could have more complex effects than just reducing GPUs purchased by 32%, but this seems like a good first guess.
The real point is where capital investment into AI declines because the economy tips over into a mild recession, and I’d like to see whether the tariffs make it likely that future AI investments decrease over time, meaning the timeline to superintelligent AI gets longer.
Sure, but note that the story “tariffs → recession → less AI investment” doesn’t particularly depend on GPU tariffs!