Hi Michael. Naturally a lot of resources will go to the US. For example, in the public awareness section in this post, we were assuming that 60% of ad spend will go to the US, and the largest policy headcount scaling in the US.
That said, an international prohibition will definitely need a coalition with more than just one 1 country supporting the agreement, and more than one country championing it will make it go further, faster.
A group of 2 to 3 middle powers who are extremely motivated to get an international prohibition on ASI could go a long way towards getting it done, even if most of it ends up being about motivating the US or leading by example. And to maximize the chances to produce these champions, we need to put our eggs in as many baskets as possible.
A group of 2 to 3 middle powers who are extremely motivated to get an international prohibition on ASI could go a long way towards getting it done
I just don’t see that happening. I think it’s US-led or bust. I think it is so unlikely that UK/EU/Canada leading by example will work. I think the attitude toward even just the EU AI Act on Capitol Hill is mostly derision.
Whereas I would love love love to see your successes in the UK be replicated in Washington.
I think the attitude toward even just the EU AI Act on Capitol Hill is mostly derision
Keep in mind “leading by example” is not necessarily by impressing people on the Hill, the effect can also be through fostering popular support, or simply by putting in the initial impetus (big institutions can struggle with initiative) and then having the US take over negotiations later.
We’ve also written about how ASI prevention could happen through more distributed coalitions at asi-prevention.com if you’re interested.
What fraction of ControlAI’s growth do you think should be in the US? I think at least 90%, and maybe over 100%!
Hi Michael. Naturally a lot of resources will go to the US. For example, in the public awareness section in this post, we were assuming that 60% of ad spend will go to the US, and the largest policy headcount scaling in the US.
That said, an international prohibition will definitely need a coalition with more than just one 1 country supporting the agreement, and more than one country championing it will make it go further, faster.
A group of 2 to 3 middle powers who are extremely motivated to get an international prohibition on ASI could go a long way towards getting it done, even if most of it ends up being about motivating the US or leading by example. And to maximize the chances to produce these champions, we need to put our eggs in as many baskets as possible.
I just don’t see that happening. I think it’s US-led or bust. I think it is so unlikely that UK/EU/Canada leading by example will work. I think the attitude toward even just the EU AI Act on Capitol Hill is mostly derision.
Whereas I would love love love to see your successes in the UK be replicated in Washington.
China?
Can be US-China led
Keep in mind “leading by example” is not necessarily by impressing people on the Hill, the effect can also be through fostering popular support, or simply by putting in the initial impetus (big institutions can struggle with initiative) and then having the US take over negotiations later.
We’ve also written about how ASI prevention could happen through more distributed coalitions at asi-prevention.com if you’re interested.
It’s not impossible, and it’s not a bad Plan C, but I just don’t think it’s a serious Plan A or B.
US is just so much more important.
In what country? It has to be in the US. US voters are not paying attention to anything happening in other countries except for war.