I aim to give well-calibrated estimates. Sometimes projects finish faster than my median estimate, and sometimes they finish slower. The ones that finish faster then become convenient examples for deflecting social problems. Hypothetical simplified conversation:
Alice: “I think this will take a couple of weeks”
Martin: “Maybe two weeks if everything goes right, but I expect something more like six to eight weeks. 80% confidence.”
Bob: “There’s no way it will take six weeks! We just have to add the thing to the other thing.”
Martin: “Remember I thought Project X would take two weeks and then Alice knocked it out over the weekend? I’m not saying Alice is wrong, just giving my best estimate.”
Naturally any final plan presented externally has to fit the external organizational culture, whatever that is, but within a team there are benefits to a diversity of optimism/pessimism and quantitative/qualitative.
I aim to give well-calibrated estimates. Sometimes projects finish faster than my median estimate, and sometimes they finish slower. The ones that finish faster then become convenient examples for deflecting social problems. Hypothetical simplified conversation:
Alice: “I think this will take a couple of weeks”
Martin: “Maybe two weeks if everything goes right, but I expect something more like six to eight weeks. 80% confidence.”
Bob: “There’s no way it will take six weeks! We just have to add the thing to the other thing.”
Martin: “Remember I thought Project X would take two weeks and then Alice knocked it out over the weekend? I’m not saying Alice is wrong, just giving my best estimate.”
Naturally any final plan presented externally has to fit the external organizational culture, whatever that is, but within a team there are benefits to a diversity of optimism/pessimism and quantitative/qualitative.