As long as there are only few nuclear states, absence of nuclear wars doesn’t seem unusual or unexpected, but if the non-proliferation paradigm was to fall apart and multiple new states got bombs in a decade or two, the situation would be likely to worsen significantly
Check this: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PiD8eS33umRrvGcMe/david-james-s-shortform?commentId=k4jpWmksetk3M9xdK
As long as there are only few nuclear states, absence of nuclear wars doesn’t seem unusual or unexpected, but if the non-proliferation paradigm was to fall apart and multiple new states got bombs in a decade or two, the situation would be likely to worsen significantly