If I meet a mathematician on the street, and she says, “I have two children, and at least one of them is a boy,” what is the probability that they are both boys?
My gut feeling however is that the crux is not in the maths of Bayesianism or Frequentism but in how to go from a real world setting (or natural language problem statement) to a formal, idealized problem statement.
Lots of comments puzzling over
My gut feeling however is that the crux is not in the maths of Bayesianism or Frequentism but in how to go from a real world setting (or natural language problem statement) to a formal, idealized problem statement.