ryan_greenblatt comments on When is it important that open-weight models aren’t released? My thoughts on the benefits and dangers of open-weight models in response to developments in CBRN capabilities.

[ryan_greenblatt]

To be clear, I agree it’s quite uncertain. I put substantial chance on further open source models basically not mattering and some chance on them being very important.

I think people do use llama 70b and I predict people will increasingly use somewhat bigger models.

Also, it’s worth noting that 70b models can seemingly be pretty close to the current frontier!