Short answer: not 80%. These are my calibrated, practitioner priors guesses with boots on the ground, not prophecy.
Episodic memory becomes default in a top-3 open-source agent framework by 2026-06 - ~40% People are building episodic stores now, but making them the default with sane UX, consolidation semantics, and community buy-in is a bigger product and governance task than the papers imply.
≥2 major commercial LLM APIs expose calibrated token/span uncertainty by 2026-12 - ~35% Teams want uncertainty measures, but shipping well-calibrated, production-useful scores at token/span granularity is fiddly and product-risky.
“Decision budgets” standard in >50% of production-grade deployments discussed at ML-eng venues by 2027-01 ~80%. “Decision budgets” as a neat academic name might look new on a paper slide, but the idea is already everywhere in production—it’s just called different things and hidden inside engineering plumbing.
A model-based world representation shipped into a widely used autonomous coding agent and raises multi-step success by >20% by 2027-06 ~50%
If none of the above directions are broadly adopted by 2028-01, that would be strong evidence against my view.
Short answer: not 80%. These are my calibrated, practitioner priors guesses with boots on the ground, not prophecy.
Episodic memory becomes default in a top-3 open-source agent framework by 2026-06 - ~40%
People are building episodic stores now, but making them the default with sane UX, consolidation semantics, and community buy-in is a bigger product and governance task than the papers imply.
≥2 major commercial LLM APIs expose calibrated token/span uncertainty by 2026-12 - ~35%
Teams want uncertainty measures, but shipping well-calibrated, production-useful scores at token/span granularity is fiddly and product-risky.
“Decision budgets” standard in >50% of production-grade deployments discussed at ML-eng venues by 2027-01 ~80%. “Decision budgets” as a neat academic name might look new on a paper slide, but the idea is already everywhere in production—it’s just called different things and hidden inside engineering plumbing.
A model-based world representation shipped into a widely used autonomous coding agent and raises multi-step success by >20% by 2027-06 ~50%
If none of the above directions are broadly adopted by 2028-01, that would be strong evidence against my view.