Robin used a Dirty Math Trick that works on us because we’re not used to dealing with large numbers. He used a large time scale of 12000 years, and assumed exponential growth in wealth at a reasonable rate over that time period. But then for depreciating the value of the wealth due to the fact that the intended recipients might not actually receive it, he used a relatively small linear factor of 1/1000 which seems like it was pulled out of a hat.
It would make more sense to assume that there is some probability every year that the accumulated wealth will be wiped out by civil war, communist takeover, nuclear holocaust, etc etc. Even if this yearly probability were small, applied over a long period of time, it would still counteract the exponential blowup in the value of the wealth. The resulting conclusion would be totally dependent on the probability of calamity: if you use a 0.01% chance of total loss, then you have about a 30% chance of coming out with the big sum mentioned in the article. But if you use a 1% chance, then your likelihood of making it to 12000 years with the money intact is 4e-53.
Do you think the risk per year of losing the accumulated wealth is higher in the far future than in the near future? If the risk is not higher, doesn’t your objection generalize to ordinary (near-future) investments?
Yes. If you’re not around to manage the money, it’s far more likely to be embezzled or end up used on something no longer useful.
Also, many possible risks you can see coming before they actually happen. The Brazilian Empire isn’t going to invade and pillage the USA in the next 10 years, but can you be so sure that it won’t happen in the 3240s?
As I said in response to Gwern’s comment, there is uncertainty over rates of expropriation/loss, and the expected value disproportionately comes from the possibility of low loss rates. That is why Robin talks about 1/1000, he’s raising the possibility that the legal order will be such as to sustain great growth, and the laws of physics will allow unreasonably large populations or wealth.
Now, it is still a pretty questionable comparison, because there are plenty of other possibilities for mega-influence, like changing the probability that such compounding can take place (and isn’t pre-empted by expropriation, nuclear war, etc).
Robin used a Dirty Math Trick that works on us because we’re not used to dealing with large numbers. He used a large time scale of 12000 years, and assumed exponential growth in wealth at a reasonable rate over that time period. But then for depreciating the value of the wealth due to the fact that the intended recipients might not actually receive it, he used a relatively small linear factor of 1/1000 which seems like it was pulled out of a hat.
It would make more sense to assume that there is some probability every year that the accumulated wealth will be wiped out by civil war, communist takeover, nuclear holocaust, etc etc. Even if this yearly probability were small, applied over a long period of time, it would still counteract the exponential blowup in the value of the wealth. The resulting conclusion would be totally dependent on the probability of calamity: if you use a 0.01% chance of total loss, then you have about a 30% chance of coming out with the big sum mentioned in the article. But if you use a 1% chance, then your likelihood of making it to 12000 years with the money intact is 4e-53.
Do you think the risk per year of losing the accumulated wealth is higher in the far future than in the near future? If the risk is not higher, doesn’t your objection generalize to ordinary (near-future) investments?
Yes. If you’re not around to manage the money, it’s far more likely to be embezzled or end up used on something no longer useful.
Also, many possible risks you can see coming before they actually happen. The Brazilian Empire isn’t going to invade and pillage the USA in the next 10 years, but can you be so sure that it won’t happen in the 3240s?
Oh you know nothing about the Brazilian Empire…
We look tame on the outside… but it’s the atom’s inside that counts...
As I said in response to Gwern’s comment, there is uncertainty over rates of expropriation/loss, and the expected value disproportionately comes from the possibility of low loss rates. That is why Robin talks about 1/1000, he’s raising the possibility that the legal order will be such as to sustain great growth, and the laws of physics will allow unreasonably large populations or wealth.
Now, it is still a pretty questionable comparison, because there are plenty of other possibilities for mega-influence, like changing the probability that such compounding can take place (and isn’t pre-empted by expropriation, nuclear war, etc).
Nice catch!