My timelines are now roughly similar on the object level (maybe a year slower for 25th and 1-2 years slower for 50th)
This means 25th percentile for 2028 and 50th percentile for 2031-2.
The original 2020 model assigns 5.23% by 2028 and 9.13% | 10.64% by 2031 | 2032 respectively. Each time a factor of ~5x.
However, the original model predicted the date by which it was affordable to train a transformative AI model. This is a leading a variable on such a model actually being built and trained, pushing back the date by some further number of years, so view the 5x as bounding, not pinpointing, the AI timelines update Cotra has made.
Note that the capability milestone forecasted in the linked short form is substantially weaker than the notion of transformative AI in the 2020 model. (It was defined as AI with an effect at least as large as the industrial revolution.)
I don’t expect this adds many years, for me it adds like ~2 years to my median.
(Note that my median for time from 10x to this milestone is lower than 2 years, but median to Y isn’t equal to median to X + median from X to Y.)
Further detail on this: Cotra has more recently updated at least 5x against her original 2020 model in the direction of faster timelines.
Greenblatt writes:
Cotra replies:
This means 25th percentile for 2028 and 50th percentile for 2031-2.
The original 2020 model assigns 5.23% by 2028 and 9.13% | 10.64% by 2031 | 2032 respectively. Each time a factor of ~5x.
However, the original model predicted the date by which it was affordable to train a transformative AI model. This is a leading a variable on such a model actually being built and trained, pushing back the date by some further number of years, so view the 5x as bounding, not pinpointing, the AI timelines update Cotra has made.
Note that the capability milestone forecasted in the linked short form is substantially weaker than the notion of transformative AI in the 2020 model. (It was defined as AI with an effect at least as large as the industrial revolution.)
I don’t expect this adds many years, for me it adds like ~2 years to my median.
(Note that my median for time from 10x to this milestone is lower than 2 years, but median to Y isn’t equal to median to X + median from X to Y.)