Unless I’ve misunderstood, this post is severely misleading, starting with:
seven specific forecasts from November 2024 that we can score right now against what actually happened
… but you don’t have “seven specific forecasts from November 2024”. You’ve retroactively constructed 7 descriptions of possible events. Those aren’t “forecasts”, and they’re certainly not “from November 2024”. They’re absolutely not “specific, falsifiable predictions” (emphasis mine) -- it’s impossible to falsify a “prediction” that was tailored to suit your observations after you made them.
(Also, where are those probabilities coming from?)
You basically acknowledge once (in the subheader) that you didn’t actually make these predictions. After that point (and before), you treat them as real predictions. “This was testable” is not the same as “we tested this”; claims like “the results are in” just factually aren’t true.
The post is full of equivocations like that. This isn’t how rationality is supposed to work. You can’t just throw out words like “prediction” and “falsifiable” to borrow the superficial appearance of rationality; you have to actually do the thing.
Unless I’ve misunderstood, this post is severely misleading, starting with:
… but you don’t have “seven specific forecasts from November 2024”. You’ve retroactively constructed 7 descriptions of possible events. Those aren’t “forecasts”, and they’re certainly not “from November 2024”. They’re absolutely not “specific, falsifiable predictions” (emphasis mine) -- it’s impossible to falsify a “prediction” that was tailored to suit your observations after you made them.
(Also, where are those probabilities coming from?)
You basically acknowledge once (in the subheader) that you didn’t actually make these predictions. After that point (and before), you treat them as real predictions. “This was testable” is not the same as “we tested this”; claims like “the results are in” just factually aren’t true.
The post is full of equivocations like that. This isn’t how rationality is supposed to work. You can’t just throw out words like “prediction” and “falsifiable” to borrow the superficial appearance of rationality; you have to actually do the thing.