Take a Screwtape Point for putting your numbers down in text. You’re talking a decent sized game here, but I do think I agree with your point that Politics Is The Mindkiller ideally would have been more an invitation to get good than a prohibition on trying. I disagree the content audit makes sense- most front-page posts on LessWrong don’t contain scored object-level political forecasting because this crowd isn’t as interested in politics. I think AI posts account for >60% of the frontpage all on their own, it’d be kind of weird to me if this crowd was more interested in politics than like, fun math puzzles or how to dress better. Maybe I’m typical minding?
(I did, and do, take it as a prohibition on trying when you’re bad at it. Arguing about contemporary politics is like a metaphorical version of doing a backflip- totally doable, but if you just read a blog post on it and maybe watch someone else do it a couple times then try it yourself you’re going to hurt yourself. Work up to it a bit.)
You stuck your neck out, so I’ll stick mine a little out. Have a Fatebook tournament. I’m presently at .3/.15/.6/.3/.4 on your predictions, respectively, though since I haven’t put a ton of thought into any of them but the manufacturing question I’m probably anchoring on you.
Well I plan to come back in 6 months and then a year to see how things are going so thank you for participating and we’ll both update them based on what’s happening in the world
Take a Screwtape Point for putting your numbers down in text. You’re talking a decent sized game here, but I do think I agree with your point that Politics Is The Mindkiller ideally would have been more an invitation to get good than a prohibition on trying. I disagree the content audit makes sense- most front-page posts on LessWrong don’t contain scored object-level political forecasting because this crowd isn’t as interested in politics. I think AI posts account for >60% of the frontpage all on their own, it’d be kind of weird to me if this crowd was more interested in politics than like, fun math puzzles or how to dress better. Maybe I’m typical minding?
(I did, and do, take it as a prohibition on trying when you’re bad at it. Arguing about contemporary politics is like a metaphorical version of doing a backflip- totally doable, but if you just read a blog post on it and maybe watch someone else do it a couple times then try it yourself you’re going to hurt yourself. Work up to it a bit.)
You stuck your neck out, so I’ll stick mine a little out. Have a Fatebook tournament. I’m presently at .3/.15/.6/.3/.4 on your predictions, respectively, though since I haven’t put a ton of thought into any of them but the manufacturing question I’m probably anchoring on you.
Well I plan to come back in 6 months and then a year to see how things are going so thank you for participating and we’ll both update them based on what’s happening in the world