these posts are useful to calibrate the commitment and self incentive biases. based on the probabilities espoused (80%, bad outcomes are ‘exotic’) i say the impact is 1000x. the world looks pretty utopian from the a/c cooled academics labs in US in anno domini 2009.
these posts are useful to calibrate the commitment and self incentive biases. based on the probabilities espoused (80%, bad outcomes are ‘exotic’) i say the impact is 1000x. the world looks pretty utopian from the a/c cooled academics labs in US in anno domini 2009.