Couldn’t you just ask “What would you estimate the probability I won the lottery before I asked you this question?” Or perhaps ask it a thousand questions generated randomly, with the one you actually want to know the answer to mixed in. There would be almost no information content in that question if your oracle knew there was a 99.9% chance any given question was generated randomly.
To the first: I already addressed it in the “Why not just...?” part:
Add “hey I’m just probing you, please don’t update on that query” in the query
That might decrease the update a bit, but insofar if inquirer counterfactually adds that in cases they need the answer in some hypothesis-specific case the oracle would still update somewhat.
To the second: that one might actually work, I don’t see an obvious way it fails. Perhaps only in the scenario with an extremely smart oracle, which could somehow predict the question you actually want to know the answer to. But at that point it would be hard to stop it from updating on anything, so updating on the query would be the least of your problems. Though it only gives you an answer to 1 question traded for 1000 queries. If we want full distribution, that would require 1000*#of_hypotheses queries, which is O(n) and beats my O(n!) suggestion, but it is still far from ~1 query per hypothesis (which would be ideal).
Couldn’t you just ask “What would you estimate the probability I won the lottery before I asked you this question?” Or perhaps ask it a thousand questions generated randomly, with the one you actually want to know the answer to mixed in. There would be almost no information content in that question if your oracle knew there was a 99.9% chance any given question was generated randomly.
To the first: I already addressed it in the “Why not just...?” part:
To the second: that one might actually work, I don’t see an obvious way it fails. Perhaps only in the scenario with an extremely smart oracle, which could somehow predict the question you actually want to know the answer to. But at that point it would be hard to stop it from updating on anything, so updating on the query would be the least of your problems. Though it only gives you an answer to 1 question traded for 1000 queries. If we want full distribution, that would require 1000*#of_hypotheses queries, which is O(n) and beats my O(n!) suggestion, but it is still far from ~1 query per hypothesis (which would be ideal).