Sorry, but you completely missed the point. “Bread and Peace” model assumes voters don’t try to predict the future at all, and simply vote for the currently ruling party if their past performance in the last term was good, and vote for the opposition if they were bad. This seems to be true empirically.
I postulate that this will put selection pressure and promote policies that work. That can be tested empirically too, quite easily even, as it predicts that countries with stronger “Bread and Peace” based voting patterns will be more successful economically.
Voters actually caring about policy and voting based on what they think will work, as opposed to voting based on what was proven to work the last term, are detrimental to the results in this model.
The “Bread and Peace” model may yield decent predictions of election results, but we still must consider aspects of politics that are not well captured in this particular model. The selection pressure you describe is real enough, but it is hardly the only thing that affects policy and politics, as the links I provided describe.
Sorry, but you completely missed the point. “Bread and Peace” model assumes voters don’t try to predict the future at all, and simply vote for the currently ruling party if their past performance in the last term was good, and vote for the opposition if they were bad. This seems to be true empirically.
I postulate that this will put selection pressure and promote policies that work. That can be tested empirically too, quite easily even, as it predicts that countries with stronger “Bread and Peace” based voting patterns will be more successful economically.
Voters actually caring about policy and voting based on what they think will work, as opposed to voting based on what was proven to work the last term, are detrimental to the results in this model.
The “Bread and Peace” model may yield decent predictions of election results, but we still must consider aspects of politics that are not well captured in this particular model. The selection pressure you describe is real enough, but it is hardly the only thing that affects policy and politics, as the links I provided describe.