This math assumes a raw pixel with no optics, which is an absurd way to build a camera. With a 1m lens at 40km, you could get ~10⁵ photons per second (13 OOM better).
The problem here is the diffraction limit. At the 2,500 km ranges discussed, 3mm resolution requires a single aperture of ~500m or a constellation of ~7,500 JWST-scale telescopes tiling the coverage. Optical interferometry could theoretically reduce the count, but requires maintaining satellite relative positions to within a wavelength of light.
maintaining satellite relative positions to within a wavelength of light
There’s no law of physics that prevents humanity from building either of these things. I’m just pessimistic about the engineering advancing to the point that we can build this in next 10 years. (without help of superhuman intelligence, that is)
This math assumes a raw pixel with no optics, which is an absurd way to build a camera. With a 1m lens at 40km, you could get ~10⁵ photons per second (13 OOM better).
The problem here is the diffraction limit. At the 2,500 km ranges discussed, 3mm resolution requires a single aperture of ~500m or a constellation of ~7,500 JWST-scale telescopes tiling the coverage. Optical interferometry could theoretically reduce the count, but requires maintaining satellite relative positions to within a wavelength of light.
Thanks this comment is useful!
There’s no law of physics that prevents humanity from building either of these things. I’m just pessimistic about the engineering advancing to the point that we can build this in next 10 years. (without help of superhuman intelligence, that is)
Yeah, seems like ASI can be achieved well before the monitoring can be built.
Oh right, yeah, that makes sense.