I like the idea of “The the fallacy”. Whenever there’s a phrase called “The X”, that presupposes that there is one X, and that’s typically not true.
In this case, the ideas of the reference class or the outside view are dramatic simplifications. These seem like weak heuristics that often are valuable, but are difficult to translate to a construct that you can apply intense reasoning on. There’s no great formal definition yet, and until there is, trying to do careful analysis seems challenging to me.
I agree that “considering multiple models” is generally best, where possible. It’s hard to argue against this though.
Nice examples and discussion.
Quick points:
I like the idea of “The the fallacy”. Whenever there’s a phrase called “The X”, that presupposes that there is one X, and that’s typically not true.
In this case, the ideas of the reference class or the outside view are dramatic simplifications. These seem like weak heuristics that often are valuable, but are difficult to translate to a construct that you can apply intense reasoning on. There’s no great formal definition yet, and until there is, trying to do careful analysis seems challenging to me.
I agree that “considering multiple models” is generally best, where possible. It’s hard to argue against this though.