EAs did figure that out. 2050 was a median with wide error bars, not a schedule.
Edit: since I got a disagree vote, I’ll show my work. The Ajeya’s 2020 draft report on AI timelines projected affordable training of transformative AGI (IE, conditional on no AI pause) between 2025 and 2100, mode is 2040, median 2050.
This is not a “schedule” by any reasonable definition.
EAs did figure that out. 2050 was a median with wide error bars, not a schedule.
Edit: since I got a disagree vote, I’ll show my work. The Ajeya’s 2020 draft report on AI timelines projected affordable training of transformative AGI (IE, conditional on no AI pause) between 2025 and 2100, mode is 2040, median 2050.
This is not a “schedule” by any reasonable definition.